BummerLog

Re-Live the Past, or Predict the Future? Posted by: Peter Varhol on October 28, 2009 DIGG At TheServerSide Java Symposium in Europe this week, ThoughtWorks architect and popular speaker Neal Ford spoke of how a static reliance on specific skills almost guarantees obsolescence within a few years. He spoke of the 19th century blacksmith, who seemed to have stable career prospects, until technology change (the automobile) rendered the entire role obsolete. I can truly relate to Neal’s message. When I was an academic teaching object-oriented programming, one of my adult students was a true expert in C programming. In fact, he specialized in C using Borland Turbo C 3.0. As he struggled to learn the concepts behind C++ and Smalltalk, he loaded his programs into Turbo C, either believing or hoping that Turbo would somehow be able to make sense out of the different languages. This person believed that single-minded specialization would bring about job security. Three years later, he was out of a job, and out of programming. That is an extreme example, but is one that we always face, because of the rapid change in technology. Such change doesn’t even have to be grounded in technology. My father was a lifelong steelworker; his job went away when it was no long economically feasible to manufacture steel in older US plants. But it happens terribly quickly when technology changes. Neal also asked the question of what types of trends would cause disruption in the future. He focused on novel but practical ways of solving existing problems, technology that enables people to do things that weren’t possible in the past, and older technology that is ready for replacement or aggregation. He acknowledged that the wave caused by the World Wide Web was a combination of factors that will probably never be replicated in our lifetimes. I don’t know if we are capable of anticipating change. Change is certainly apparent after the fact. Before change impact our lives, or while it’s happening? I don’t think so. We might be able to discern that change is occurring, because new skills are being required, and new companies being created. If we are being observant. But I don’t think we can easily prognosticate on how those changes will play out for us as individuals. Some that seem world-changing may not change our careers much at all. A few small changes could put us out of business for a long time. So what do you do? 1. Don’t fall in love with any technology. You may find yourself hanging onto it far too long. 2. If you tell yourself “There’s still plenty of life in , you are hanging a bulls eye on your chest. Don’t ever find yourself in that position. 3. Continually add to your toolkit. Learn at least two significant new tools every year. 4. Don’t ever believe you are an expert in anything. There is always more to learn and apply.

— http://www.noop.nl/2009/06/top-200-blogs-for-developers-q2-2009.html